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Playoff Analysis, Predictions

By Jeremy Crabtree, 11/19/15, 3:45PM CST

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ESPN's Jeremy Crabtree analyzes, predicts Friday's playoff games

This weekend is the biggest weekend of high school football on both sides of the state line, and ESPN Senior Writer Jeremy Crabtree breaks down the games and makes calls on who will advance to play for state championships.

 

810 Varsity Game of the Week
No. 5
Olathe North at No. 7 Blue Valley (7 p.m./ESPN 99.3)
Kansas Class 6A semifinal

Both teams have pulled off some surprises to get to the Kansas 6A semifinals, and it’s certainly not the game many projected when the brackets were initially revealed. But both the Eagles and the Tigers have gotten hot at the right time, and Kansas City high school football is better when two traditional powers like Olathe North and Blue Valley is playing for a spot in the state championship.

 

North is riding high after dominating defending state champion SM East, and you have to love how the Eagles used its star recruit Isaiah Simmons as the focal point of its attack against the Lancers. He had two 60-yard touchdowns, a 98-yard kickoff return for a score, a fumble recovery and almost had two INTs. It was the second week in a row Simmons was at the center of the game plan for the Eagles in a critical playoff game, and both times he’s been unstoppable.

 

Most observers had already penciled in Lawrence in the state championship game, especially since the Lions were loaded with Division-I recruits like defensive end Amani Bledsoe, two-way lineman Trey Georgie and fast-rising linebacker Price Morgan. But the Tigers, behind a stout defense led by linebacker Michael Maffry and solid quarterback play from Colton McCumber, absolutely blitzed Lawrence 42-17 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Maffry was all over the field last week and has continued to show why he was the leading tackler in the East Kansas League.

 

The difference in this game could be the absence of Blue Valley running back A.J. Totta, who is done for the season with a leg injury. Even with McCumber’s outstanding play, it’s tough to replace Totta, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards this season and also brought a real sense of toughness to the Tigers’ offense. Also look for Simmons to have another big game, because even as talented as Blue Valley is, it simply doesn’t have a high-level athlete that can match up physically with the four-star recruit.

 

Projection: Olathe North 35, Blue Valley 28


No. 6 St. Thomas Aquinas at No. 3 Mill Valley
Kansas Class 5A semifinal
This is the deepest Mill Valley has advanced in school history and living in the Western Shawnee community, and it’s hard to put into words how excited everybody is for this game.

The Jaguars already beat Aquinas in week one 38-20, and watching the film, it honestly wasn’t even that close. But this is a different Aquinas team. Randy Dreiling’s bunch is playing inspired football the past few weeks, especially with the play of senior running back James Cosentino. He scored on runs of 6, 7 and 31 yards last week in the first half against St. James, helping the Saints advance to face Mill Valley in the 5A semifinal.

 

It’s going to be a tough challenge for the Jags to stop Cosentino, and they’ll have to play assignment-sound football to stop the Saint’s option attack, but Mill Valley has arguably the best collection of athletes in the city with Simone Award semifinalist Christian Jegen, quarterback Logan Koch, tight end Luke Krull and many others. In front of a packed and loud house, the Jaguars advance on and play for the 5A state championship next weekend.

 

Projection: Mill Valley 42, Aquinas 28


No. 2 Fort Osage at Columbia Battle
Missouri Class 5 semifinal
The Indians blitzed Park Hill in surprising fashion last week, blowing the Trojans out 42-10. It was like the Fort Osage coaching staff finally took the reins off quarterback and Kansas State signee Skylar Thompson and let him just go out and play.

And did he ever, with three touchdowns on the ground and three more in air.

Battle is the defending state champs, and this will be Thompson’s toughest challenge of the year, as Battle has D-I athletes all over on defense and has only given up 24 points in the last two weeks against very good Lebanon and Fort Zumwalt North teams. But Thompson is special. He has another big game, and Fort Osage moves on to play for the Missouri Class 5 championship.

Projection: Fort Osage 28, Battle 17

 

No. 13 Free State at Derby
Class 6A semifinal

Derby’s only loss on the season came to Mill Valley, the top-ranked team in 5A, and folks in Wichita think the Panthers are a lock to win it all next week. The key to this game will be the play of Firebird quarterback/defensive back and North Dakota State commitment Bryce Torneden. Slow him down, then Derby wins. But nobody has in the last month, so that’s why I’m projecting two Sunflower League teams in the 6A title game.

 

Projection: Free State 28, Derby 24


No. 4 Bishop Miege at No. 20 Eurdora
Kansas Class 4A D-I semifinal
The Stags’ march to another state championship should continue this week over a Eudora squad that already has three losses on the season. Miege blew out Paloa 65-14 last week in what many people thought would be a much closer game. The Stags simply have too many weapons with quarterback Connor Putz, running back Dawson Downing, receiver Jafar Armstrong and defensive tackle Kaelin Key.
 

Projection: Bishop Miege 56, Eudora 10


No. 9 Kearney at Westminister
Missouri Class 4 semifinal
Another year, another semifinal game for Kearney. For the third straight year the Bulldogs are just one win away from a return trip to the Edward Jones Dome. Expect them to make it four out of four with running back Marcus Harris and quarterback Logan Hink playing outstanding on offense and tackling machine Cale Garrett leading the way on defense.

Projection: Kearney 38, Westminster 10